FEDERAL INSIGHT By Andy Fishburn Presidential Politics on Tap for 2016 T HE 2016 YEAR IN POLITICS at the federal level will be dominated by one thing, and one thing only: the presidential elec-tion. In fact, most of the other issues at play in 2016 will be determined by who heads the ticket for the respective political parties and the week-to-week horse race of who Washington insiders believe is going to be the eventual victor. Heretofore, the political consensus has been momentous over having given control of the that the nontraditional political candidates (i.e., party to the Tea Party wing. those that appeal to the far right or the far left ) Of course, the conventional wisdom could Thanks to the would fade, and Hillary Clinton would be the be right, and Republicans could nominate a presidential Democratic nominee and a traditional, so-candidate who will make the general election called mainstream Republican would be the election, not much one of the most competitive we’ve seen since Republican nominee. On the Republican side of 2000, with many down ballot races being very is going to get the ledger, much of this theory has been turned competitive as well. accomplished at on its head throughout 2015, however, and it So what does this all mean for the agenda in the federal level 2016? Not much is going to get accomplished is widely believed by the Washington political class that the 2016 election could well turn into beyond the bare necessities of funding the gov-in 2016. a rout if the Republicans nominate an extremely ernment and keeping key programs operating. conservative candidate who could end up alien-2015 ended with key business tax provisions be-ating moderate voters in key states, such as Pennsylvania, ing extended through the end of 2016, so any action on those Florida and Ohio. matters will certainly be put off until aft er the 2016 elections. If you are looking at the 2016 elections in their entirety, And despite all of the talk about serious work on tax reform, this is a huge deal because if moderate Republicans don’t go the year of a presidential election in a bitterly divided city is to the polls because they are turned off by the Republican not a conducive environment for the type of serious legislat-banner carrier, it will have dramatic eff ects on the Senate ing that tax reform will require. races in those same three states, all of which are currently held by Republicans. If one combines those races with much-What You Can Do more-likely Democratic pick-ups in Wisconsin and Illinois, So what’s an ELFA member to do? Well, fi rst fi nd out when one could easily see the Senate fl ipping back to Democratic your primary election will be held and vote in it. In 2014 fewer control along with another President Clinton. Even under than 5% of congressional races were determined by fi ve per-this scenario, it’s hard to see the Republicans losing con-centage points or less. What this means is that 95% of districts trol of the House of Representatives, but the margin would lean one way or another, and in those districts the elections certainly be tighter. Additionally, if this scenario plays out, that matter aren’t in November but in the spring and summer. the hand-wringing by the mainstream Republicans will be Th us, if you don’t think your incumbent is voting in the best interest of the industry, you had better not wait until No-vember to try to vote him or her out. Conversely, if you like Only 5% of House Races Were Decided by a Close Margin your current member of Congress and the way they support Margins of Victory in 2014 House Elections Margin of >5%, Dem the industry, you should show your support by voting in the Margin of 0-5%, Dem primary to help ensure they make it to the general election. Margin of 0-5%, Rep Margin of >5%, Rep Second, take advantage of a year where members of Con-gress are going to be in their districts more than in Wash-ington to build a relationship with them. Incumbents usually win, so building that relationship is likely to be a long-term winning investment. If you would like assistance executing on either of these AK ideas, please get in touch with the ELFA Federal Govern-ment Relations team, Andy Fishburn or Richard Shanahan, at afi shburn@elfaonline.org or rshanahan@elfaonline.org. ■ Because so few districts produce competitive races, some observers predict that the Andy Fishburn is ELFA Vice President of Federal Government GOP will retain their majority in the House until districts are redrawn following the 2020 census. Source: National Journal Research; AP Relations. 50 JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2016 EQUIPMENT LEASING & FINANCE MAGAZINE