STATE OF THE Key Factors Driving Equipment Finance R 14 EFLECTING ON THE PAST YEAR, 2016 was an economic disappointment. Growth slowed to a crawl in the fi rst two quarters, while equipment and soft ware investment contracted. Th e economy began to show signs of life in the third quarter and grew at a 3+% annualized rate for the fi rst time in two years, but business investment continued to disappoint. At the start of 2017, most indicators point to an economy that is solidifying. In the 2017 Annual Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook (jointly produced by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation and Keybridge), we projected an above-cons ensus growth rebound of 2.7%, along with a decent 3.0% expansion in equipment and soft ware investment. Despite this optimism, however, there are several potentially signifi cant economic headwinds on the horizon—as well as larger-than-usual “tail risks” that, if realized, would have a major negative eff ect on both the economy and the equipment fi nance industry. On behalf of the Foundation, Keybridge economists produce monthly U.S. Equipment Soft ware In-vestment Momentum Monitors and quarterly industry-focused economic outlooks. Drawing on these materials, here are nine key industry, policy and macroeconomic factors to watch in 2017. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017 EQUIPMENT LEASING & FINANCE MAGAZINE